You bring up a good point. Wish I could chime in and help you out with this but I wasn't in Japan during the last El nino so I don't really know. I'm sure some of the guys who have been there for a while will be able to help you out.

I thought it brought cool summers and warm winters to Japan. We already are getting our cool, wet summer so there you go. I have noticed a connection between us and the PNW. When Whistler is bad, so is Japan (bad for Japan that is). It was el nino the year I smashed my back and collarbone (was that 06?) and that was a terrible winter for Hakuba and a pretty bad one for Whistler until a very late season rally.

Here is the modelled forecast from Japan Meteo. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/composite/index.h...

Select 3 month horizon and Jan in the menu. This will give you deviations for a 3 mth period of Dec, Jan, Feb. (Selecting Feb will give a period of Jan, Feb, March). Modelling is based on historical El Nino events (1949-2004)

Precipitation: measured by the precipitation ratio, with less than 90% confidence... the same or more precip should be expected during El Nino years in the Kita Alps area of Japan.

Temperature: measured as the temperature anomaly compared with neutral phase, with less than 90% confidence... the same or warmer than normal.

Temperature is what kills Hakuba's ski resorts as it is already pretty mild here in a normal winter. From a backcountry and guiding perspective, warmer more stable weather with less snow is much better as it lets you go further with less hassle and more safety... and it lets you get right into the alpine into the terrain that Hakuba has. I thought last season was fantastic despite the endless rain events (there is almost always powder out there, just forget the resorts and low altitudes).

To cross check the modelled predictions against current weather, select August and 3 mths. It predicts with 95% confidence more rain and colder temps. Which is exactly what we are getting right now, and last month. Just like NM observed. Likewise how bad the PNW is during El Nino. This model predicts a terrible coming season for them.

This is what i ve found.
Recent El Niños have occurred in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007.

source:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/

yeah...the olympic year was an el nino year. seemed like there was a big panic around at that time too with predictions of a warm/wet winter. Not sure really how things turned out but i guess it wasn't a complete disaster.

Hard for me to imagine things much worse than 2008-9, but at least we have a scapegoat.

apparently he's a weak el nino, which i suppose is theoretically good for us.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml

It seems that we will have great surfing conditions too, till the snow season arrives.

what????? u have to do poachninja's first surf/snow double-double... i've done both in the same weekend in japan, but never the same day. ever seen terje and the boys go surfing in norway after the arctic challenge? feck me looks cold.

Yup seen that. I did 1 weekend surfing next snowboarding last season.
Wanna try both in the same week this one.
I know Rapie done it in the same day.

that would be incredible... morning in hakuba and then zoom up to niigata for some frigid ball-shrinking chop. surely we can get together enough boards to pull that off.

The biggest problem will be the wet suit. You are going to need a super thick wet suit.
There are a few people here who have pulled of the surf and ski. Rappie says if it is
snowing in Hakuba the surfing is great. He has had a few double double pow/good
wave days. I am surprized HAG hasnt gone for it yet!

I've got a 4/3 f bomb and never felt cold in it (but I admit nihonkai is a different level from anything I've tried before). A hood somewhere and boots too. Still the thought of that frigid sea is quite daunting. have to build a fire on the beach and get intimate with it the moment you get out of the water.

I have no interest in surfing with air temps of 5C and water temps at 10C, no matter how good the surf is. But you are right, you can get ok surf 50km from Hakuba in winter, particularly when it is snowing hard here. It is very gutless powerless surf though.

At the last moment yesterday I pulled out of a mad dash to Shikoju with Matsumoto-san (money reasons). With the typhoon on now I likely missed out on some of the best waves I've had in years.

As for surf/ski in the same day, we almost did it in Hokkaido. Got up at 5am and drove north along the Nihonkai coast to Shokanbetsu Dake for touring but couldn't quite find big enough waves on the way. Almost, but didn't happen. It was an awesome day of touirng though. In the days prior to that Matsumoto-san (Rapie) had a two day back-to-back: surfed in the evening, touirng in the morning as follows (I didn't surf... made it as far as getting my wetsuit ready then went weak. Too cold fo rme).

Surf in the Pacific:

Skied Yotei the next morning:

you can rent the ultra-gnarly canyoning wetsuits off the guys at evergreen. i surfed in chiba in february with a 4/3. wasn't bad. never surfed sea of japan though.

I did the Golf/Ski weekend the last 2 seasons in Japan. Throw a game of Lacrosse in there and its the ultimate whiteboy weekend.

IVe done a yak and ski
and Ive done mtb and ski
both on the same day.
Still shooting for a meaningful triple

Its been unseasonally cold here in Kansai, temps have been in the very low 20's in my house at night/morning, the humidity is almost null, and the breeze is quite cool. It feels like mid/late October from previous years, but its still the beginning of September. Is this common for an El Nino year?

I can only remember sweating my ass off in September, and finally being comfortable in mid October (like we have it now). I hope temps stay like this for a month or two, that would be lovely. Or get even colder and dump snow all winter would be fine with me. Id like to have epic powder on that November 3 day weekend like we did 2/3 years ago.

I think its supposed to hit Japan from now on and get back warm again.

First snow was reported in Hokkaido in the news today.

"the turn"

meaningful triple?
ski, onsen, beer

tsondaboy wrote:

First snow was reported in Hokkaido in the news today.

Thank you.

Any new beta about the effect of El Nino??