Non-expert comment: Nov 9th, daisekkei had firm corn-like conditions at lower elevations becoming icy crust up top. Continuous rockfall from about 2000m up despite sub-zero temperatures (would love to know how this happens...). Crampons absolutely essential to reach upper elevations. Be prepared for sketchy (but very fun!) turns and likely base damage as long as no new snow arrives.

Thanks for the beta.

Last week there was no rockfall at all, also subzero temps with new snow freezing in the loose rocks perhaps. I'm guessing some freeze-thaw on the crumbly shakushi rocks (the white ones) resulted in a few more loose stones - ice expands in the cracks, loosens the stone, eventually it falls. Even on sunny snow-less days that areas drops a pebble or two every ten minutes.

Crampons needed below 2200m on daisekei???? Its pretty flat leading up to there. Are you talking above 2200m? It is quite steep from 2200m to 2400m - I have only once managed to skin up there in spring - all other times I have switched into boots or crampons. 2200m is about where the daisekkei 'glacier' ice stops and it gets quite rocky with a thin snowpack where the permanent ice gives way to boulders higher up.

It was about from 2200 that crampons were needed. Before that it was a toss up as it was not-so-steep but icy. Skins with ski crampons would have been perfect but I had never used mine before (park rat) and went straight to boot crampons

I was able to bootpack in my snowboard boots from 2000~2200 m that was a bit too icy to skin. So for sure you didn't need crampons till that.

nov 15th - no precip since the last post and the snowpack in the daisekkei hasn't really changed. the suncrust on the south-facing aspects was a unique combination of slugs and snails in between ice patches. pretty impossible snow. shitloads of rocks. crampons still necessary. won't go back up until there's a bit of snow (if it can stabilize on that nasty crust).

Here's my daily report from SDJ and more useful field observations (taken with Tsonda on Saturday)
http://steepdeepjapan.com/diary/tenki-and-yuki-diary-23nov08

And here is my new format for presenting the daily data. Last season I collected 5 months of weather station data. This season will be the same except now it is presented as on online table, plus I have dispensed with a few data items as they are either not relevant when collected in the valley or not useful to other people.
http://steepdeepjapan.com/tenki-data

Thx for the all the tips db, had a great day hiking.

PM me your email address and I'll send the pics

Tsonda and I found a very stable snowpack today up to 2300m (as high as we went, up behind Tsugaike, data taken on NE aspect). 30cm of very soft on top, progressively becoming harder down to 100cm. We didn't dig any deeper than that. Snow depth was 2300m. Good stability in the small area we were in with no meaningful layers found at all. Probably the best we will see it all season.

NOTE: we did see some 2 day old crown walls at abut 2500-2600m, NE and E and on pretty obvious wind loaded rolls. SO DON'T GO THINKING ITS ALL SAFE AND WONDERFUL.

Sunshine all day caused the south aspect to crust up as the shadows fell on them. Lower elevations (1600m and below) we saw some 2-3mm surface hoar from the cold clear night. With no wind forecast and two more clear nights expect that to grow bigger on N aspect.

The JAN reports have started to roll in as well.

Mine from today: http://nadare-net.jp/snowbbs/2008/12/081201_tsugaikebc.html

From another guy on Happo north bowls today: http://nadare-net.jp/snowbbs/2008/12/081201.html

I feel stupid I didn't take a pic, the one above happo was pretty big.

I wouldn't really say it was above Happo. It was just across the way from us, under korenge.

If only if only if only!!!!

translation please

From the last 4 days the most significant feature of the snowpack I observed was a thick layer of 5mm surface hoar on many shaded aspects and rollovers. Four crystal clear nights resulted in the predictable. The second most noteable feature was the intense baking the sunny aspects received from all the great weather.

The current storm wont bring a lot of snow, but it will fall colder than previous falls this season. It will also arrive with 30-50kph winds at 2000m. Any accumulation (natural and windblown) will happen on southerly ice or northerly pockets of wind-shielded surface hoar.

Leading up to the storm stability in the Tsugaike and Happo area has been good, possibly very good.

Thx for the reports db. I am waiting to hear how things turn over the weekend.

It rained to 1900m recently, crusted and terrible below on all aspects.

We went to 2500m above mumezawa on the happo ridge and skied down the north side to 1900m. Great knee deep soft all the way. Very stable. 30kph gusts on the ridge from NW, loading south side and lee side rolls.

Great snow considering recent weather.

Hakuba backcountry took a beating from very strong winds yesterday and rain to about 1600m in Tsugaike. Today I went up to 2200m and skied the east bowl of Tengupara from 2100 down to 1700. It is gentle and considered boring. I wanted it that way. Stability is poor at tree line and above.

• Soft slab loading from SW winds on north through east slopes
• There is a crust down 15cm which produced a compression test failure after 3 from the wrist.
• There is another weak interface at 25cm which produced another easy CT failure after 8 from the wrist
• There is also a crust down about 40cm which didn't produce any significant failure.

Snow transport and loading at 2100m was light, but intense at 2500m. The steep NE bowls of Norikura Dake seemed to be getting very well loaded.

Overall the surface snow was a mix of soft slab and breakable windboard with patches of exposed crust on scoured areas.

NOTE: as the season goes on there are very regular Japan Avalanche Network reports on the Hakuba area supplied by most of the local guides. Mine are mixed in there (look for 'Damian' or entries in English. Here is the Hakuba page:

http://nadare.jp/snowbbs/index.html

If you cant read Kanji the Google translation works ok, especially for the label headings. Note the second last box in the table. It contains a stability assessment (technically different to a hazard rating published in avalanche bulletins, but still very useful). It rates stability in the Alpine, Treeline and below treeline.
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http://nadare.jp/snowbbs/index.h...

The stability rating kanji label to look for is: 安定性評価

An example entry would look like this. There is not always a rating for all three altitude zones, below treeline is missing in this case.
アルパイン Poor (alpine)
森林限界 Fair (treeline)
森林帯 (below treeline)

And here are daily weather study plot data from Cortina ski resort (they are yet to update it for this season, when they start doing so the url may change. They take two readings a day, AM and PM. I can explain any of the headings if needed. This is data collected to CAA standards by ski patrol.
http://nadare-net.jp/teiten05/

Also, here is a subset of weather data from my own study plot. I only take AM readings: http://steepdeepjapan.com/tenki-data

For a long time gaijins have complained that Japan doesn't do enough when it comes to avalanche. Well, look around you, some of the essential info is there. Start using it. The complaining is becoming outdated. So is the arrogant assumption that because it isn't gaijins doing it, the work must be second rate. I know of very few gaijins who's training, skill and experience exceeds that of the average Japanese JAN contributing member and/or local guide: Last season there was 4 gaijins in Hakuba with a CAA Level 1 qualification: myself and three guides from Evergreen (who for what ever reason don't contribute data to the JAN public service)

In addition to the above, check this thread. http://poachninja.com/forums/weather-and-snowpack-forum/act-happo-weathe...

This is great news.

I dont think anyone is complaining very much these days. It took years to get the avalanche data to the table really. There are some people really dedicating themselves to this cause for either guiding or for personal preference. That said I still see many dumb things out there done by people.

The volume of people heading up is increasing every year and the respect for the other group is lacking. Last year we dropped in to do Oshidashi to a chute sticking high on the ridge so as to not cut the whole powder slope that day. Another group (guided was skiing GuraGura) They were in their safe zone and watching the tail guide drop a steep straight line. Just as I started down the slope they started to traverse 800 meters across and below us. We had that bowl respected them up high and skied something as to not effect them. When I met up with the guide I was quite angry. I was already 3 turns into the falline when they started that traverse.

My point being this. Just because you have a ticket doesnt make you anything. I have heard of 1 possible failure on the J-level one course only. (db yours was quite higher I believe)
Thus I dont trust some of those guys out there. That said there are some guys really going after it and getting well edcated. In 10 to 20 years the community is going to have a cracker of a data base and skilled people. As BC skiing grows so will the saftey element/side of things.

As a group ie poachninja we dont have the readership at this time to get some of these links to people. We need to grow the site a bit more. db your passion will drive quite a bit of this forward among this community. You are one of those guys that just decides to do something. I remember when you were asking about boards or skis about 6/7 years ago. Keep plugging away.

No one failed the CAA1 that I attended. Failing it would mean that you have not met the CAA standard for gathering data (weather and snowpack) that would be used by a level 2 graduate in avalancghe forecasting. Said another way - passing the CAA1 does not even remotely imply that the graduating student has backcountry travel skills. It is an observation/data gathering course to industry standards.

More later...

I had once heard that, that was the difference if im wrong then i am wrong (wouldnt be the first time).
The thing that scares me about the level 1 in Japan is that it is used as the baseline for who can guide.
I know people that started sking or boarding maybe 4 seasons back and are already guides.
That said again there are super good things happening and as they happen and grow things can only get better. I love the resources available at the moment. Although I cant be out there at least I can see a few different points of interest in the valley. More information is better than zero information.

Says who? AFAIK anyone can guide here. And anyone can get the required baishyo hoken (insurance). But they are not guides, they just pretend to be.

My japanese friends that do guide feel and most of the companies feel, that the level 1 is the base line guide to start guiding.

AFAIK=i dont understand that one sorry.

Here's some basics:

AFAIK = As far as I know
FWIW = For what it's worth
YMMV = Your mileage may vary
IANAL = I am not a lawyer
IMHO = In my humble/honest opinion
IIRC = If I remember/recall correctly

Interesting how different groups of people vary. I know a few of local Japanese who have their CAA1 from either JP, NZ or CA. None of them are lead guides, they all tail guide and they were all employed by guiding companies.

Most important is NSFW=Not safe for work, which were the first things I would open on a slow workday morning...

Yes sock monkey I am old and grey and cant figure out the net lol.
I like you db know more tail guides than guides. But if you search
many of the companies in English and Japanese you will find many
that advertise their guides as having level 1s.

I know the guys you are talking about not as well as you but I do
know that they have really been trying to become something. I
commend and respect that commitment!

Since when do you work?

Ok snow above 2000m on the Happo ridge. North side from Mumezawa riding pretty good actually, fast, up to boot deep soft. Also some guys have hit the south side from the lake and upwards. Good looking steeper lines going down that side from teh western end of the bowl, but crust below. Didn't test the stability on the south. Note: south and north descents are return trips, not ridden all the way to the river.

North side, N and NE aspects has a pretty unstable interface at 10cm deep. No big deal, but its there and worth looking for if it gets loading with windslab or new snow or both. We got a very weak result on a compression test plus triggered a little sluffing on 35 degree terrain. Sometimes enough sluff to erase the skiers track all together. Not a big deal - but 35 degree terrain doesn't usually sluff the top 10cm just because a skier turned on it. I got an area about 10m wide to move.

There is also a bit of windslab down 25cm or so. It didn't react at all when ridden but it did give a somewhat weak result with a compression test: CTM(12). It was resistant, but fractured fully with a pop after he initial fracture. Something steeper (40) and with 30cm of new snow weight might go poorly with that layer. Although the one above is weaker.

A few of my turns and a small bit of sluff showing how quick the top 10cm wants to let go. My friend's line on the lookers right also triggered something small down a gully out of shot. Again, no big deal, but worth knowing about if it gets additional loading.

Powder

appreciate the updates. thank you

also note that SJ doesn't seem to be publishing a Backcountry travel advisory or rating the avalanche hazard in the Hakuba Now! thread this year. that was pretty much the only thing i found useful on that site (the other thing i found useful was the Alpico bus schedule and now that's gone too). SJ is dead, long live poachninja.com

That SJ report was Evergreen's three-times-a-week report, from the Evergreen site. They never credited Evergreen as the contributing source, which I thought was slack as shit (why should we trust a bulletin without knowing who wrote it?). Since when has anonymous-SJ been an authority on Hakuba snow stability?

You can still get the Evergreen bulletin here: http://japantours.evergreen-hakuba.com/

And replicated here on the new ACT page (scroll down for bulletin) http://220.254.102.140/CGI-BIN/amos_e.cgi

You can get Japan Avalanche Network Hakuba stability forecasts here: http://nadare.jp/snowbbs/index.html (helps to read Japanese, or know where to look)

I strongly recommend that you consult all of the above three sources BEFORE basing any decisions on what I say in this thread or on my blog. I am decade of experience behind being an avalanche forecaster and am only hoping to relate to people what I see in the backcountry so that they can make their own decisions

Note that ACT has raised the Danger Level to high, 4 out of 5. Here is my copy/paste report from my blog, nothing more than comments on what I saw. It is not a forecast or prediction. http://steepdeepjapan.com/diary/tenki-and-yuki-diary-23dec08

Happo north face, the gentle terrain (max 30 degrees, mostly around 20-25). We rode from the lake 2100m down to 1600m. Don't take this as an awesome positive sign especially if it keeps snowing, gets colder or wind picks up, but we found that the new snow that started wet and warm after the rain has bonded well with the lower crust. We found the same thing in Otari yesterday. We ski cut, traversed and skied a wide range of terrain and skinned back up on more varied terrain.

My JAN report: http://nadare.jp/snowbbs/2008/12/081223-happobc.html

Another JAN report for roughly the same place and time, from a local guide with plenty of experience here. He was more negative: http://nadare.jp/snowbbs/2008/12/081223-2.html

sorry to be so qualitative, but the area i rode was much more in line with the negative JAN guy. I ski-cut across the north side just under the 1st cairn on happo ridge. there were some tracks there from today already so i ski-cut and didn't dig a pit. the 20cm HST wasn't bonding very well at all to the rain crust. ski-cut as hard as i could didn't produce a slide so we went for it. didn't feel comfortable at all though and was constantly hugging a safety zone. i can't imagine today's additional load is going to help. probably needs a bit of time to bond. correct me if you feel strongly otherwise.

A conservative assessment is a good one, whats the downside? It is a bit unstable, but I found that the near ridge line was the problem area. Plus the new snow (HST=storm snow for the wider audience) was soft and easy to judge on top of an otherwise ex-isothermal pack. The absolute top 10-15cm was giving shooting cracks, and more snow on that will be an issue.

But the bond on the crust was good on all aspects, and any poorly bonded layer above was thin and soft.

Here's the hardness of the layers as I got it, on average

0-15cm fist hardness
15-20cm 4 finger hardness
20-25cm 1 finger hardness (the bond with the crust)
25cm and some distance below below, crust, knife harness

So progressively harder to the crust with an ok bond. Thats a good thing.

But yes, we did find areas that sluffed really easily, However that was between the 4 finger and 1 finger layers. Not at the crust.

Overall, it is a top 30cm or so that is worth being very careful with, especially if it gets more loading.

To back up my assessment, we rode a lot of terrain and skinned on a lot and tested a lot. All the time it was solid. The shallow and short shooting cracks where our biggest concern.

gotcha. i was only concerned with 'near ridge line'. i didn't get a feel for anything below.

So next day out, bluebird and no wind overnight. Lots of terrain was being hot all the way up to Mumezawa (2300m) on Happo. It was stable, I'd say very stable. We rode a wide amount of terrain and skinned back up across more varied terrain. Always great stability. For anyone reading this: I make that statement as at 9pm on 23 Dec. The stability may be worse in the next 24 hours if it gets colder, hotter, windier or snows more. It changes all the time, always check the time and date of a post in this thread and consider the weather that followed. Don't read this and use it as an excuse to ride all and everything in the next day or two. This is not a forecast, it is an observation of the past. Get it?

Reports from JAN:

Mine

Two local guides (Shoji Matsumoto and Ichikawa-san) http://nadare.jp/snowbbs/2008/12/081224.html

Quick morning update for anyone reading the last few posts about good stability and who are too careless to consider the weather events in the last 24 hours:

At my weather study plot we had 45cm of new snow in the last 24 hours, 91kg/m3 density, 41mm of water content or 9.9% water. So its heavy down low and probably moderately heavy at treeline. Also 30-40kph winds at the top of Happo, some lifts may be closed (at Goryu). The above events have increases avalanche danger a lot. It is no like it was a few days ago.

Looks like wind topped out at 36m/s on Happo last night!!! yikes

yep... chairlifts have been pretty frightening the last few days. there's a new rule that any unsavory events happening on chairlifts in 50+ km/h winds is considered 'no-homo'.

I made two inadvertent grabs with my hand while on the lift. I was scared.

If you are watching the other forums (I'm working so that is all I am doing) you will see fuck ton of slides all over the western states since xmas, Utah has it bad right now and many of the avalanches have occured inbounds after the terrain has been well skiied. I know their snowpack is completely different from ours but its still some scary shit, these resorts are supposed to have some of the best avy control methods in the world and people are dieing. Fucking hell, inbounds skiing deaths in usually well controlled terrain is just fucking scary.

I put some comments on recent Hakuba stability in this thread: http://poachninja.com/forums/snow-forum/29-dec-warning

Sorry, should have kept it all in one place.

db, what aspects did you see slide, north/south?

Sorry HH, missed your post.

Today I at last returned to the Hakuba backcountry after far too many days out of action. Got some boot to knee deep non-blower powder today, fair to good stability.

Quick update:

• South aspects, Tsugaike
• Rode from 2200m to below tree line
• Really strong winds seen at 2600m
• No worrying instability identified in compression tests, although the top 25cm of new soft snow moves easily on some well formed stellars above a harder layer.
• There is buried hard windslab about 40cm thick down about 50cm.
• Didn't dig down to the Dec 23 rain crust (deeper than 100cm in most places at 2000m now)
• Didnt trigger any sluffs or small slabs, although some have recently been reported in the area. I did see a moderate run-out of sluff on the 35 degree terrain from Tengupara Higashi - but couldn't see where it came from/how it started due to the shape of the terrain from where I was.
• Weather stations have been recording huge winds on Happo at 2200m, much less at same altitude in Tsugaike.

Note: still some big and DEEP exposed holes on the stream running down from Tengupara to the hut. One is nasty - you seriously wouldn't want to end up in it. Crossed a few other sketchy snow bridges over other streams as well. Take care, carry a rescue cord.

Some amateur observations over the last two days in the Hakuba backcountry:

Yesterday (02-Jan-09) Norikura
NE aspect @ 1600m (below treeline). Vis was overcast (hence the decision to go to Norikura). Winds continued to blow strong from the NW and wind loading remains a problem. I was getting a very resistant break on M10 compression test about 40cm down on what i believe is the dec 29/30/31st sun crust. I ski cut a few little convex rolls at got some cracking slabs in the windcrust about 10-15cm but it was manageable.

I passed a few guided groups on each lap, they were digging pits as well so i guess we all thought the terrain was manageable.

Today (03-Jan-09) Hakuba Kurobishi NF
NE aspect @ 1700. Unlimited vis. Winds continued to blow strong from the NW and since there wasn't any new snow since the last pit i dug at a roughly the same altitude on the same aspect i didn't bother with a pit on the wind-scoured face i was dropping into and just tried ski cutting the wind-loaded aspects when i got to them and i couldn't get a reaction. A little confidence from yesterday's observations also persuaded me the gully was safe. I was getting a much bigger reaction from the wind crust than yesterday, pretty much cracking on every aspect about 15-20cm deep. Although i think it was manageable, it didn't make for a pleasant ride and i was fooking happy to be out of that valley once i crossed the river.

This wind is killing me

What do you mean by M10? Do you mean CTM(20) or CTE(10).

People sometimes say things like CTM(7), with the intention of meaning 'a medium result on the 7th hit from the elbow'. The correct/standard expression of the result is infact CTM(17), that is, the 17th hit.

Where is Kuroboshi? I can't keep up with all the Japanese names for different areas.

Tengupara Higashi chutes from 2100m are doing ok now, they got hit a bit today and I didn't see much besides some sluff. Notre that some size 1 and 2 sot slab slides where reported for the area yesterday, although I didn't see them myself (but I didn't look at everything either)

This area (pic from last season)

Wind wasn't so much of a problem for us today except on Tengupara - same old same old. In the Raicho area of Tengupara there is still loads of 20-30 degree powder that could be lapped 4-5 times. Amongst others a heli-ski guide from Kamchatka was in our group today, and he was stoked at the fun being had

I'd also recommend giving this a tour(pic from a few days ago). I'd be hitting the shadowed gully that runs down behind the two near-ground pine trees. Skin up on the climbers left of the gully (roughly). Go as high as you can, I recommend just below the last patch of trees on the lookers left of the upper gully. I'd be careful going for the ridge right now as the steeper bowls from it will very likely be loaded.. There is cold deep powder in that gully on the shadowed (almost north) side, I'd bet my hat on it. Most of last season it was my own private powder half pipe. I would take you there tomorrow myself but am helping guide a Japanese group in the area already.

i mean 10th from the elbow so CTM(20) i suppose, but on a very rough shear. i call the first gully on the nth faces 'kurobishi'... not sure if that's the right name, but i kinda hoped someone would correct me if it's not....