ninjaman and i are tentatively planning to go to tateyama on thursday/friday. i suspect that with the sun/raincrust issues that we have that stability will be an issue, but will wait to access how much snow falls and when. will keep you posted.

Sorry dude but if the weather report doesn't change till Tuesday, I don't think I ll be going up to Tateyama. Probably head towards Hakuba for the weekend when hopefully things will have calmed down a bit.

I am waiting to see how the still low pressure system moves over the week.

This storm will start out warm, but not warm enough to rain on the wind and sun crust in the alpine (rain warms the ice and the following snow glues quite well). It's also arriving in classic Hakuba fashion: with +50kph winds at 2000m. The winter winds in the place annoy me a lot. Its calm and gentle across the summits from spring until the first winter storm. Then its a blow-fest again.

I wont be going into the alpine for a good while after this storm. It will be either wind blasted back to the existing crust. Or wind slab. Or pockets of both. I wouldn't be bothering with Tateyama either, which will be the same, although there will be plenty of people to test the stability for you.

Treeline will be unskiable due to thin snowpack. Daisekkei will be good but with a fat loaded zone directly uphill from you (I wouldn't go to the col at all, nor linger long below it)

Best option for Friday might be hiking Happo and skiing on piste. You might get 50cm up the top.

Tateyama does have quite a few little slopes. LM and I didn't like the conditions our first year and just played on those 200 meter long slopes. As long as you can stay on those you can manage your risk pretty well and keep your group within sight. The raicho side and peak will be a shit show really and Thursday or Friday wont really have people to pre-test the snow stability

I hope that the storm rocks in hard and gives us an opening like last season that was bloody fun.

Not a pretty picture, but pretty much what I thought you'd say. You think a trip to Tateyama would be merely unenjoyable or irresponsible? I thought the wind was going to be severe as it was, but updated forecasts show it as getting up to 60... good ol' hakuba.

Any lifts opening up this weekend?

Tsonda - I don't know when the lifts open. Sometime in the next two weeks though.

KoM - Tateyama would most likely have a crust right now, just like Hakuba's alpine (only 16km NE of Tateyama - bet you didn't know that!).

The snow fell on 29 Oct.

• Since then we have had fantastic weather with 2.5mm of rain in the valley (extremely low)
• Seven days with between 6 and 8 hours of sunshine. Four more days with 50% sunshine.
• Valley highs of 18 and 20C a few times.

The alpine base is a crust.

Starting tomorrow night we will get 60cm of snow with winds between 30kph and 60kph falling and blowing onto that crust.

What does your avalanche book suggest to you? Mine says stay out of the alpine or ride areas of less than 30 degrees and windward areas.

Who knows, you might get there and find patches of crust and stable windpacked styrofoam. With such strong winds there will be a lot of sublimation going on and also most exposed areas will be stripped of snow leaving it mostly in the lower flat areas - like where you are camping. Its the deep bowls and pockets you want to avoid. In between you could find plenty of cut up stable snow. Check out the Tateyama section of Landmade 4 for a reminder of what it might be like.

I seem to spend about a third of my workday staring at maps so got the hakuba-tateyama proximity surprise a while back. For better or worse I'm been using the hakuba snow and weather forecasts for tateyama as well as they seem to have the highest altitude available within reasonable proximity. I guess I already knew what you were going to say, just hoping you might surprise me. That does leave some potential around ichinokoshi or just around raichozawa but quite a long way to go for some relatively unexciting runs.

Anyone interested in hiking some low angle stuff this weekend in Hakuba?

King, cant you just cancel the days of you took and take them another time?

Assuming vis is fair this weekend, I will either:

a) tour Daisekkei if it doesn't snow as much as forecast in the next 4 days.

b) if it does snow as predicted, or more, I will hike to the very top of Happo for some ungroomed and empty on-piste pow. Possibly camp up there and also head up the ridge and hit that nice south bowl from the lake.

I am hoping for more than 60cm of snow and option b.

If you hit the south bowl , when there is no more snow to ski, do you plan to hike back up the ridge towards the toilets or hike down from there?
You can still drive up to the Kurobishi, right?

If it snows as forecast that road will be shut (I guess). I'm hoping to skin up most of it.

And yes, hit the bowl then skin back to the ridge.

Sounds like a good plan.

I ll probably be heading up there on Friday night, so can join you anytime you wanna try it on Sat/Sun/Mon.

The road is chained up. A friend road a bike up there the other day. The lifts open this Saturday for sure. Whether that is for skiing or just one off tickets for the winter hikers it will open. It is the start of the winter hiking season.

As db said there are many problems at Tateyama but you can safely manage your risk. Can that or will that translate to good skiing? I dont know, I would have to go there to see really. The Tateyama accident (landmade4) happened right near the station. That also killed someone 2 years ago. The lower slopes near the main camp ground though have less wind issues. There are quite a few little slopes in there that run about 25 to 35 degrees. Big run outs and no real traps. That said if you are walking in blind then maybe I would hold off. I was with LM who had been there many times hiking. He knew the area well enough by sight and feel.

As for my plans if they open the lifts and there is good coverage I will slide for half a day. I will not hike anything as I have too much shit to do.